[ndlr] L’analyse du XXe Congrès par Jonathan D. London (City University of Hong Kong) à lire sur East Asia Forum.
While Vietnam’s 12th Party Congress was billed as a contest for leadership of the party between sitting party secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and sitting prime-minister Nguyen Tan Dung, it might well be remembered as marking the beginning of a generational shift in the party’s top leadership. Yet a generational shift does not necessarily entail major changes. Indeed, for all the excitement and tension that surrounded the congress, the current mood in Vietnam is one of anti-climax.
So what happened? Through a mix of procedural means and clever politicking that took many by surprise, Nguyen Phu Trong secured himself a second term as general secretary of Vietnam’s Communist Party. In the process, he and his supporters appear to have effectively short-circuited the political career of the self-styled political maverick Nguyen Tan Dung — the current prime minister, who until as recently as a few months ago was held to be the favourite for the leadership post.
Dung’s own legacy was his downfall. Though widely labelled a reformer, Dung’s record never squarely fit that characterisation. Mostly, he was a smooth politician who built up a powerful patronage network and initiated reforms that promoted the interests of well-placed persons and foreign investors, sometimes to the detriment of the country’s economic performance. While Dung projected himself as being committed to a more open and democratic Vietnam, his critics dismissed such a possibility. Still, much to the chagrin of his critics, Dung’s enigmatic style and wit led many Vietnamese to see his bid for secretary general as a bid for a new direction in Vietnamese politics that, though imperfect, would at the very least bring change.
Instead, the opposite has occurred. It is the party conservatives who are smiling. In the immediate aftermath of the Congress the state-run press was awash with photos of Trong being congratulated by his handpicked clutch of appointees. In contrast, images of Dung have him either standing stoically by or back turned, heading for the exits.
Lire la suite : East Asia Forum, 04/02/2016.
Ouvrages et articles récents de Jonathan D. London:
- London, Jonathan D. (ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Vietnam, Oxfordshire UK, Routledge (Forthcoming in 2015).
- London, Jonathan D. (ed.), Politics in Contemporary Vietnam: Party, State, and Authority Relations, New York and London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.
- Malesky, Edmund and Jonathan London, “Reviewing the Political Economy of Development in China and Vietnam”, Annual Review of Political Science, 17, 2014.
- London, Jonathan D., “Welfare Regimes in China and Viet Nam”, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Volume 44 (1): 84-107, 2014.
- London, Jonathan D., “The Promises and Perils of Hospital Autonomy: Reform by Decree in Vietnam”, Social Science and Medicine, Volume 96 (2013), p. 232-240, 2013.
- London, Jonathan D. (ed.), Education in Vietnam, Singapore, ISEAS Press, 2011.
- London, Jonathan D., “Globalization & the Governance of Education in Viet Nam”, Asia-Pacific Journal of Education, Vol. 30, No. 4, December 2010.
- London, Jonathan D., “Viet Nam and the Making of Market Leninism”, The Pacific Review, Vol. 22 No. 3 July 2009: 373–397, 2009.
Pour en savoir plus sur les enjeux de l’après Congrès :
- Nguyễn Trung, Đại hội XII, một thất bại chung của Việt Nam!, Viet Studies, 03/02/2016.
- Nguyễn Quang Dy, Điểm lại mấy vấn đề then chốt sau Đại hội Đảng, Viet Studies, 02/02/2016.
- Tôn Thất Thông, Chính sách kinh tế qua nghị quyết đại hội XII, Viet Studies, 01/02/2016.